X Factor 2011 Betting

[ArmchairJockey]

Who do you think will win?

I've got Misha B e/w at 9/1 with Ladbrokes, so I'm sitting in a great position, although I fear she is quite arrogant.

I have a strong fancy this weekend, Sami Brookes to go at 7/2 with Paddy Power, who was smashed in the betting last week only to remain in the show.

She is distinctly average, and I'm not sure she is marketable, so the producers will be keen to get rid of her. I just read that Mary Byrne is on a massive contract from Simon Cowell, so they'll want to wait a while before unleashing a new Susan Boyle on the public.

Any thoughts appreciated!

[Ed The Head]

Have watched very little of it but surely that annoying little punk called Frankie is value at 13/2 with Victor Chandler to go? He was in the bottom two last night so clearly the public don't like him. Plus he can't sing.

[ArmchairJockey]

Frankie is terrible at singing but the young voting girls love him, so he is set to remain in the competition. I've been following the competition closely with my punting hat on, and it's staggering to see how much the producers try to sway votes. In fact, in the first week, there was no voting, 4 acts were simply axed - a swift way of getting rid of the riff-raff and exposing the other 'talents' which are set to grace the marketplace after Christmas.

Two things strike me as crucial.

The first is the slot that acts get on the Saturday night. The first slot seems to go to an act that the producers aren't backing to go all the way in the competition. Amelia Lily and Nu Vibe have both fallen foul of this.

Secondly, video editing before performances is significant, as is when judges keep repeating themselves - eg. Tulisa re. Rythmix - These are the girls from next door etc etc Best Girl Group ever to grace the X Factor.

In the first week, Nu Vibe were shown to be bickering, whilst The Risk were seen bonding over a game of football and described by Tulisa as a group of 'fit/sexy young blokes'. The Risk have certainly been endorsed from the off, and the fact that they are now favourites is fair. They were even the first act announced safe this weekend.

Sami Brookes was handed a woeful song last week and I don't feel that the public are warming to her, as they did to Mary Byrne last year, who was always the 'woman working behind the till in Tesco'. Mary has since come out and got a record deal with Simon Cowell, so I've come to the conclusion that even though Sami can sing and has a fine pair of lungs, she will be booted off in the next 3 weeks.

I found some 4/1 with Ladbrokes earlier today that she goes this weekend, which I was pleasantly surprised with. She is now 3/1 across the board, and even that makes appeal. If Louis had the choice between Sami and the dreadful Kitty in a sing-off, he would save Kitty 99 times out of 100, regardless of how she sang. The show thrives on controversy and column inches in the tabloids.

Frankie was well televised in the auditions and boot camp, so it seemed as if Cowell and his cronies were backing him to go far, but only now do they realise he can't sing.

Sophie interests me in the outright market as the public like shy and humble singers, and she is being bigged up as an 'improver', which always goes down well.

[ArmchairJockey]

Marcus got the graveyard slot last night, but performed well and looks safe.

The two losers were Frankie and Sami. Frankie's VT was dreadful and the judges' comments were hardly endearing. It is hard to see him out the bottom two. Sami was all over the place vocally and was dressed like a hobo, but she may be saved against Frankie in a sing-off, which I couldn't see happening earlier this week. Only the top 8 acts go on the X Factor live tour, so there is still a chance that the judges try to keep Frankie in for the next couple of weeks, but they are making it hard for themselves by portraying him as a knob.

Rhythmix were forgettable and are starting to look arrogant.

Johnny and Kitty were both excellent and are safe in my book.

Odds to go tonight:
5/4 Frankie
3/1 Sami
8/1 Rhythmix
9/1 Marcus


What do you think? Have you had a punt this weekend?

[gwjc12]

Frankie slashed to go thanks to his actions at the Roxy but Sami produced a truly woeful performance that was total drivel and deserves to go. Can't see the judges saving Frankie for the second week running so he will have to hope he picks up enough votes to go on another X-Factor funded bender this week.

[ArmchairJockey]

Sami Brookes is packing her bags, what a tremendous punt. See you on the Daybreak sofa tomorrow morning, or not!

[ArmchairJockey]

Some definite value to be had in the elimination market this weekend, I can't see Frankie going just yet and feel he is too short at 6/5 with the bookmakers. My early shout would be Rhythmix at 6/1 with Bwin, they have to go sooner or later and mentor Tulisa is losing popularity by the week with her crappy comments. The Risk are Plan A with the groups, but will producers want to keep Rhythmix for the live tour? If that's the case they'll need to make the final 8.

The ones being backed are Sophie at 8s and Craig at 20s.

[Ed The Head]

It seems Rhythmix will no longer be called Rhythmix.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz...on-Cowell.html

Can't exactly help their chances...

[ArmchairJockey]

It seems Rhythmix will no longer be called Rhythmix.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz...on-Cowell.html

Can't exactly help their chances...

Well picked up Ed. I missed it, and it's a fairly rare occurrence, but I heard a story that a charity was also named Rhythmix. Even if it only has a minor impact on their vote this weekend, it could be enough to take them into the bottom two, which could spell trouble for their legion of fans.

[Ed The Head]

Given the X-Factor is all about branding the contestants into people's hearts and minds (a bit like farmers brand cattle but more painful in the long-run), I'd say Rhythmix's forced change of name could be terminal.

Especially as most of the people who vote are 14-year-old Vicky Pollards who won't even remember who the "band" are once their name's been changed.

Yeh. Whatever like.